克山县空气质量及变化趋势

通过对克山县2003—2012年的空气监测数据分析,二氧化硫和总悬浮物颗粒物呈下降趋势,氮氧化物和降尘浓度变化不大;尘类是影响环境质量的主要污染物,县区环境空气质量呈轻度污染,根据各年度的监测数据来看,环境空气质量逐年得到改善。     

“十一五”期间肇源境内地表水环境质量状况评价及分析

针对我省入境流域肇源,全面开展了十一五期间枯、平、丰水期的河流水环境现状调查,采用秩相关系数法对水环境现状进行评价。研究表明:肇源境内"十一五"期间主要污染因子为高锰酸盐指数、石油类、氨氮和生化需     

昆明市建设项目环境影响评价公众参与现状研究

以昆明市为研究对象,深入分析现阶段环境影响评价公众参与中存在的主要问题,并提出改进的对策建议。     

模糊综合评价法及主成分分析法在额尔齐斯河水质评价中的应用

利用额尔齐斯河2010年监测数据进行水质评价。用模糊综合评级法对水质状况进行评价,判断水质级别;用主成分分析法判断主要污染物类型,确定各污染物的主要贡献率。并将两种方法的评价结果与单项指标评价结果相比较,结果表明：在水质评价中水质级别判断采用模糊综合评价法,水质主要污染物判断采用主成分分析法,用两种评价方法结合起来对水环境质量进行评价,结果较准确。     

阿什河干流(道外香坊段)防洪及河道生态治理工程生态影响分析简述

通过分析阿什河干流生态环境现状,进行工程建设对生态环境的影响分析,并提出了相应的生态保护措施和建议。     

A new pre-assessment model for failure-probability-based-planning by neural network

At present, the prediction of failure probability is based on the operation period for laid pipelines, and the method is complicated and time-consuming. If the failure probability can be predicted in the planning stage, the risk assessment system of gas pipeline will be greatly improved. In this paper, the pre-laying assessment model is established to minimize risk of leakage due to piping layout. Firstly, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) modeling is carried out for urban natural gas pipeline network. According to expert evaluation, 84 failure factors, which can be determined in the planning stage, are selected as the input variables of the training network. Then the FTA model is used to calculate the theoretical failure probability value, and the failure probability prediction model is determined through repeated trial calculation based on BP (Back Propagation Neural Network) and RBF (Radial Basis Function), for obtaining the optimal network parameter combination. Finally, two prediction models are used to calculate the same example. By comparing our pre-assessment model with the theoretical prediction consequences of the fault tree, the results show that the error of RBF prediction model can be close to 3%, which proves the validity and correctness of the method.     

Dynamic risk assessment for underground gas storage facilities based on Bayesian network

Loss of the underground gas storage process can have significant effects, and risk analysis is critical for maintaining the integrity of the underground gas storage process and reducing potential accidents. This paper focuses on the dynamic risk assessment method for the underground gas storage process. First, the underground gas storage process data is combined to create a database, and the fault tree of the underground gas storage facility is built by identifying the risk factors of the underground gas storage facility and mapping them into a Bayesian network. To eliminate the subjectivity in the process of determining the failure probability level of basic events, fuzzy numbers are introduced to determine the prior probability of the Bayesian network. Then, causal and diagnostic reasoning is performed on the Bayesian network to determine the failure level of the underground gas storage facilities. Based on the rate of change of prior and posterior probabilities, sensitivity and impact analysis are combined to determine the significant risk factors and possible failure paths. In addition, the time factor is introduced to build a dynamic Bayesian network to perform dynamic assessment and analysis of underground gas storage facilities. Finally, the dynamic risk assessment method is applied to underground gas storage facilities in depleted oil and gas reservoirs. A dynamic risk evaluation model for underground gas storage facilities is built to simulate and validate the dynamic risk evaluation method based on the Bayesian network. The results show that the proposed method has practical value for improving underground gas storage process safety.     

滦河流域水资源开发的水文效应及其生态环境响应

通过滦河干流滦县水文站径流的长期演变趋势,分析流域水资源开发利用的水文效应及其生态响应。结果表明,在气候变化和人类活动影响下,滦河流域地表水资源量出现显著的衰减趋势,并引起滦河下游河道系统严重退化、近代滦河三角洲萎缩、下游平原区地下水位下降等若干生态环境问题。提出应加强竞争性用水条件下的河流生态水文调控,以改善滦河下游的生态环境。     

港口规划环评评价内容及技术方法探讨

随着经济的快速发展,港口已成为社会发展的重要支柱。但随之带来的是港口建设与环境保护之间的矛盾日益突出,因此必须实施港口规划环境影响评价。本文基于《规划环境影响评价技术导则》(试行),结合港口规划环评的特点,对港口规划环评的技术路线和评价内容进行了总结。评价重点内容从规划协调性分析、环境承载力、公众参与和风险评价四个方面进行了研究和总结,为其它港口总体规划环境影响评价工作提供参考和借鉴。     

土地利用规划环境影响评价若干问题探讨

土地利用规划环境影响评价的作用是为了实现土地的规划和环境相互适应、相互协调,为规划决策者提供一定的技术支撑。文章阐述了土地规划环境影响评价重要意义、内容及相关程序,同时也对此提出了针对性的建议,积极推进及完善土地利用规划环境影响评价在现阶段十分必要。